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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Iowa State vs. Baylor
Baylor
+9½ -110
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #378 Take Baylor Bear over Iowa State Cyclones (Saturday 2:30 pm) The love affair with Iowa State has faded. They are now a 6-4 team and will struggle to close out the regular season with two victories. Baylor got their only win of the season two weeks ago against Kansas, but I do not see them getting run off the field today in Waco. They have been competitive in three of their last four games and I just do not believe Iowa State has much left in the tank. Look for this to be a close game and getting this many points is too good to pass up. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. 

NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Navy
+18 -110
  at  BETONLINE
in 1d

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Navy +18

I certainly question Notre Dame's motivation this week after they came up woefully short in their 'game of the year' last week at Miami.  They lost 41-8 to the Hurricanes in a complete no-show.  Had they won that game, they would have been in line to make the four-team playoff.  But now those dreams are crushed, and it's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face a pesky Navy team this week.

This is a Navy team that will fight you for four quarters, and I'm not sure Notre Dame will be ready for that kind of fight.  This is one of many great Navy teams under Ken Niumatalolo, who would have a bigger job elsewhere by now if he didn't love it at Navy so much.  His players certainly go to war for him every week.

The Midshipmen have gone 6-3 this season, and they were competitive in all three losses.  They only lost 27-30 at Memphis as 3.5-point dogs, lost 21-31 at UCF as 10-point dogs, and lost 26-34 at Temple as 6-point favorites.  Memphis is 8-1 this season, UCF is 9-0, and Temple is playing its best football of the year.

Following those three consecutive losses, Navy bounced back with a 43-40 win over an upstart SMU team.  I think the fact that that final score was close is keeping this line higher than it should be.  But it really wasn't as close as the final score as Navy led 34-11 at halftime and outgained the Mustangs by 133 yards.  The Midshipmen rushed for a whopping 559 yards in the win.

Both teams love rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, which will help shorten the game and keep Navy in it.  Navy averages 370 rushing yards per game while Notre averages 303.  But it's worth nothing that the Fighting Irish's leading rusher Josh Adams got hurt against Miami last week and may not be at 100%. That puts even more pressure on shaky QB Brandon Wimbush and the Notre Dame offense. 

Navy has been decent at stopping the run, giving up 166 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry against teams that average 212 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, holding them to 46 yards per game less than their season averages.  Notre Dame is only holding opponents to 35 rushing yards per game less than their season averages.  The weakness of Navy's defense is through the air, but Notre Dame won't be able to exploit it because they only average 52% completions and 168 passing yards per game.

Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games after trailing its previous game by 17 points or more at halftime.  The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last two seasons. 

Each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less.  Navy has only lost twice in the last 10 meetings to Notre Dame by more than 17 points.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to South Bend.  Bet Navy Saturday.

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Purdue vs. Iowa
Purdue
+8 -110
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Free pick on Purdue +

I like the value here with the Boilermakers catching over a touchdown against the Hawkeyes on Saturday. Even after an ugly loss at Wisconsin this past Saturday, Iowa is still getting love from the oddsmakers and the public for what they did two weeks ago against Ohio State. As great as the Hawkeyes played in that game against the Buckeyes, I think that was more of Ohio State just not showing up mentally ready to play that game. 

We don't have to worry about the Boilermakers not showing up, as Purdue's bowl hopes are on the line, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. While the Boilermakers are just 4-6 overall and 1-4 in their last 5, I have really liked what I've seen out of this team and most importantly I think this is a great matchup for Purdue.

Iowa's a physical offensive team that needs to be able to run the ball to open up the passing game. We saw that last week against Wisconsin, when they had just 25 yards rushing and 44 yards passing. Purdue's defense is a lot better than you would expect for a 4-6 team and their strength is stopping the run, as they rank 36th in the country giving up just 139.4 ypg. 

The offense for Purdue has been limited at times, but I think Brohm will be able to put together a game plan here to attack the Hawkeyes. Let's not forget the Badgers aren't a great offensive team and they put up nearly 400 yards on Iowa's defense. The other big key here is I think this Hawkeyes team is in a bad spot off those two monster games against Ohio State and Wisconsin and a big rivalry game on deck at Nebraska. I think the Boilermakers have a legit shot at winning this game, making this an easy play given the line. Take Purdue! 

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss
-2½ -115
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

Jeff Allen's Free Selection for Saturday is on Ole Miss

Looking for Ole Miss to keep up its series domination on Senior Day in Oxford. The Rebs have owned the last three meetings (including last year on a FG with 37 seconds remaining) and have covered all five games since A&M entered the SEC. New Reb QB Ta'amu throwing for 389 ypg. since taking over three back. Matt Luke has done a great job with a program circling the drain after the Hugh Freeze "affair" and other off the field player transgressions. The Rebs are 5-5 and need a win here to guarantee .500 season with a road game in the "Egg Bowl" on deck. Ole Miss wins by a touchdown. 

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NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Texas A&M
+125
  at  5DIMES
in 1d

Texas A&M +125 1% Free Play 


Texas A&M is a different offense with Nick Starkel back at QB and it really makes the entire team better.  It will also help Starkel that his offense will be able to run the ball which hasn't been the case of late.  Here they'll face Ole Miss who is 125th in rushing yards allowed. 

Ole Miss is 5-5 and can't go to a bowl game so their motivation is beyond this game towards the Egg Bowl against Miss State.  Clearly a look ahead spot and we are getting value because the offense has not missed a beat since Shea Patterson was lost for the season.  However, QB Jordan Ta'amu has faced pass defenses ranked 110, 96, and 108.  Here he faced A&M who ranks 75th, not good, but A&M is ranked 4th at getting to the QB, and Ole Miss 85th at protecting their QB.  Ole Miss should have some mistakes in this one.  Ole Miss -7 TO margin to A&M's +6 TO margin.  A&M really needs to win in November to save their coaches job.  Here they are in a good match-up against a poor defense.  They have struggled against good defenses not the bad ones.  I expect the Aggies to win this game outright. 

NBA  |  Nov 17, 2017
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Nuggets
-4½ -110
  at  BOVADA
in 8h

The Nuggets’ stinker at Portland on Monday night notwithstanding, there are a lot of positive signs for Denver heading into this game. The Nuggets are rested, they’ve had time to work out issues that cropped up Monday and they hope to be a deeper team with the expected return of Gary Harris to the starting lineup. Harris enables Will Barton to return to the bench and add depth. And with Jokic and Millsap, Denver also has the size to deal with New Orleans’ Davis/Cousins two-headed monster in the paint. Toss in that Denver has been tough at home of late (5-1 at the Pepsi Center in November, including wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City) and the building blocks are in place for a cover tonight.

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