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NFL  |  Oct 23, 2016
Giants vs. Rams
in 5h

Sunday NFL Free Play - From London

Courtesy of Tony George Sports

Giants (-3) vs Rams   *9:30 AM EST Sunday 

What the heck are the Giants doing laying points to anyone with a good defense.  A strong pass rush against Eli Manning is a cause for turnovers gents.  Beckham banged up and not 100% and the rams shut down the running game.  Not a good combo for NY here.

The Rams have some serious travel involved but Fisher doing a good job of coaching this year, Gurley will run the ball well against the G Men and Keenum at QB efficient enough to keep the defense honest.  NY beat a Ravens team last weekend with no defense due to injuries across the board, and I think they are a false favorite.  This is also one of my Westgate Super Contest entries this Sunday.

Play 1 Unit on the Rams 

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NFL  |  Oct 23, 2016
Colts vs. Titans
in 9h

The Colts are coming off another heartbreaking loss as they blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead and eventually lost in overtime. Earlier in the season, they lost on a last second field goal in Detroit, lost in Denver as they were on the march for a game winning touchdown and lost by three points in Jacksonville. Indianapolis should be at least .500 right now but the good news is that it plays in the worst division in football as all four teams are negative in scoring differential so a win here and they keep pace. Tennessee has won two straight games to get back to .500 as the once stagnant offense has shown signs of life. The Titans have put up 58 points over the last two games after scoring just 62 points in their first four games and must be licking their chops in facing the Colts porous defense. While the Indianapolis defense is well below average, the offense can keep pace which it has done all season but just fallen short. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 divisional games. Meanwhile, the Colts are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss which can be attributed to Andrew Luck and his ability to bounce back. We should see it again this Sunday. Play (465) Indianapolis Colts

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NFL  |  Oct 23, 2016
Ravens vs. Jets
in 9h

Free Pick on Jets -

The perception on the Jets couldn’t be any worse than it is right now. New York has lost 4 straight and were just embarrassed on national TV. Not to mention they are benching Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of Geno Smith. Most just assume this team is throwing in the towel at 1-5, but I don’t think that’s the case.

While it’s improbable they can rebound to make the playoffs, it’s not out of the question. Kansas City won 10 straight after starting 1-5 last year. Houston also made the postseason after starting 1-4. With everyone doubting this team, I think they come out with one of their best games of the season. 

In reality, it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise the Jets got off to a bad start. They had an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season. Five of their first six were against playoff teams from last year. The other was on the road against a division rival in Buffalo, who they beat. It’s also worth pointing out just two of those six came at home.

While the Jets have struggled since Week 1, Baltimore opened the season 3-0. That strong start caught the attention of a lot of people. It didn’t last, as they have lost their last 3. In comparison to the Jets. Baltimore has played just one team that made the playoffs last year. That being the Redskins, who went 9-7 without a single win against a team with a winning record.

I don’t think it’s going to get any better for the Ravens going forward. Baltimore has once again been hit hard with the injury bug. They are without their two best pass rushers in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Starting middle linebacker C.J. Mosely is doubtful. They are decimated in the secondary and that's just on defense. Joe Flacco will play through a shoulder injury, but they will be without wide out Steve Smith and one of the best guards in the league in Marshal Yanda. In total, Baltimore is expected to be without 6 starters and several reserves. 

Asking this Ravens team to go on the road and win given those injuries is asking a lot. Not to mention against a pissed off Jets team that I believe has something to prove. I also don’t hate the decision to go to Smith at quarterback. Fitzpatrick was hurting this team more than he was helping them. He only had 5 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 6 games. Changing things up can only help matters. It certainly can’t get any worse than what they looked like against the Cardinals. Take New York! 

NFL  |  Oct 23, 2016
Giants vs. Rams
45 un-110
in 5h

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Giants/Rams UNDER 45

The oddsmakers have been forced to set this Giants/Rams total higher than it should be.  That's because so many people from overseas are betting the OVER rooting for a high-scoring game.  I think they're going to be severely disappointed with the end result.

For starters, these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Giants rank 25th in scoring offense at 19.3 points per game.  The Rams rank 28th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game and 31st in total offense at 301.3 yards per game.  Neither team has been able to get their running games going, which has really hurt them in the red zone.

The Giants have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this season.  They are giving up 21.8 points per game and just 5.1 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the NFL.  The Rams still have an elite defense that gives up 22.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.  And they are getting healthier along the defensive line now.

Just going off simple math, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER.  The Rams and their opponents are combining for 41.1 points per game this season, while the Giants and their opponents are combining for 41.1 points per game as well.  I just think that this total has been inflated because both of these teams went over the total last week.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 147-82 (64.2%) since 1983.  Both teams combined for more than 50 points with their opponents last week, but that's not going to happen again.

Jeff Fisher is 6-0 to the UNDER in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of the Rams.  Fisher is 9-2 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play as the coach of the Rams.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Rams last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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