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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+12½-110
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5

This line is clearly inflated right now because the Packers have something to play for while the Buccaneers do not. Well, I would argue that Green Bay could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Detroit and overlooking the Buccaneers. Either way, I believe the value is with the double-digit home underdogs in this one. The betting public always backs the Packers, and that’s what has driven this line up higher than it should be.

All you have to do is check out how the Packers have fared on the road this season and you’ll be in love with the Buccaneers as well. Indeed, Green Bay is just 3-4 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 4.9 points per game on the road, and outgained by 47.3 yards per game. It averages just 21.1 points and 341.6 yards per game, while giving up 26.0 points and 378.9 points per game away from home.

Even the three road wins for the Packers have been close as they won by 3 points at Miami and by 3 at Minnesota.  They did beat the Bears by 21 on the road, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Bears actually outgained the Packers by 138 yards.  All five of Aaron Rodgers' interceptions this season have come on the road, where he's been held to under 210 yards passing four times in seven starts.  He's been limited to just 12 touchdown passes on the road as well.

While the Buccaneers have a poor 2-12 record, I have no doubt that they are better than their record indicates. They have simply been a victim of several close losses this season. Indeed, nine of the Bucs’ 12 losses this season have come by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer, and seven by 6 points per less. They have gone 1-9 in games decided by 10 points or fewer.

Tampa Bay clearly has not quit on Lovie Smith. It continues to fight as it has only been beaten by more than 10 points once in its last eight games overall. It has a 6-point overtime loss to Minnesota, a 5-point road loss at Cleveland, a 27-7 win over Washington, a 1-point home loss to Cincinnati and a 2-point road loss to Carolina during this stretch, just to name a few. The Buccaneers have actually outgained four of their last seven opponents despite going 1-6 over that span. They will continue to be competitive Sunday.

The Packers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. They have a tendency of playing down to their competition, and that has been evident by this trend. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its seven road games this season. Tampa Bay is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in its last game. The Bucs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Packers, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
UTEP vs. Utah State
UTEP
+10-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 7h

UTEP +10 1.1* Free Play

New Mexico Bowl game between UTEP and Utah State.  Normally I would back Utah State a team that in years past has been dominating on defense but right now there is just something missing as their defense gave up 900 yards rushing and 8 TD's over their last 4 games combined.  UTEP's Aaron Jones has the play making ability and I don't view Conference USA that far behind the Mountain West.  In fact I rank the Mountain West 6th, and C-USA 8th.  UTEP had the tougher non-conference schedule facing Texas Tech, Kansas State and no FCS team while Utah State faced Tennesse and Wake Forest + FCS team.  Each team had one common opponent which was New Mexico.  New Mexico is another team that runs first and UTEP went on the road and beat them 31-24 while Utah State won at home 28-21.  I just think there is too much value here with UTEP who is very excited to be in this bowl game.

The total in this game is also dropping like crazy and is now down at 44 which makes this 10 points all the more valuable.  UTEP is 2nd in the nation in time of possession, they have only turned the ball over 11 times, and they are among the best in fewest penalties ranking 23rd while Utah State comes in at 103.  If that's not enough for you, UTEP starts a senior QB and an experienced secondary while Utah State is starting a freshmen in Kent Myers.  Sure Kent Myers is 4-1 as a starter but the pass defenses he has had to go up against are some of the worst in the nation in Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico etc.  UTEP is ranked 10th in passing defense efficiency.  UTEP is also better on third down offense and defense and again I still don't think they are in a far worse conference. 

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Air Force
-1½-104
  at  PINNACLE
in 11h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #208 Take Air Force Falcons over Western Michigan Broncos (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Saturday, 5:45 pm ESPN) The Falcons continue to be undervalued by the bookmakers as this is far and away the best of the academy teams in 2014. The Falcons are 9-3 on the season and that includes wining five of their last six games including a victory over Colorado State. The MAC was not as strong of a football conference this season compared to the Moutain West and I just do not believe Western Michigan is excited to be playing this game in Boise, ID. The Falcons get their quarterback back for this game and he is the straw that stirs the drink. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs and Air Force is not just a run on all downs team anymore. Air Force has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card featuring a monster selection on Saturday from the New Orleans Bowl and as well as our NCAA Game of the Year. Get all of the action now, right here and let 43 years of handicapping experience work for you. 

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10* Miss State analysis to come closer to game day.


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