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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Texas vs. Kansas State
Texas
+10-105
  at  BOVADA
in 4h

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Texas +10

The Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) are getting a lot of love for their 31-30 win against the Sooners last week. I believe they are overvalued because of it. A closer look at the box score shows that Oklahoma should have won, and should have won handily. It outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards. It missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal late that would have given it the victory.

That Oklahoma game gives these teams a common opponent. Texas also played the Sooners, and should have won, but lost by a final of 26-31 two weeks ago. The Longhorns outgained the Sooners 482-232 for the game, or by 250 total yards. Another common opponent is Iowa State, which Kansas State beat 32-28. Texas beat Iowa State 48-45. Those two results show that these are pretty equal teams, meaning this 10-point spread is inflated.

Texas has really gotten its offense going the last two weeks now that sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has gained some valuable experience. Swoopes threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 50 yards and a score against Oklahoma. He came back against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 95 yards and a score.

As you can see, Swoopes has accounted for over 800 yards of offense and five touchdowns over the past two weeks.  This is a completely different Texas offense than the one we saw in the first five games of the year.  The Wildcats haven't exactly been a shut-down defense, giving up 22.5 pints and 352.0 yards per game this year.

The Texas defense has also played much better than it gets credit for. It is giving up just 346.3 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider it has faced some elite offenses in the likes of BYU, UCLA, Baylor and Oklahoma already. Kansas State has actually been worse on that side of the ball against a much softer schedule.

Charlie Strong is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. Strong is 9-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 75% in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  This could be a letdown spot for the Wildcats off their big win over the Sooners as well.  Bet Texas Saturday.

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 26, 2014
Nevada vs. Hawaii
Hawaii
+4½-112
  at  PINNACLE
in 16h

FREE CFB play Saturday

Analysis coming!

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
UMass vs. Toledo
UMass
+17-115
  at  BMAKER
in 6h

Massachusetts is just 2-6 on the season but it is much better than that record shows. Four of those losses have been by five points or less including three by a field goal or less so a few breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. The Minutemen won just one game in each of the past two seasons but have already surpassed those totals thanks to its current two-game winning streak. Defeating Kent and Eastern Michigan may not be overly impressive but both wins were blowouts and they outgained the two opponents by 141 and 282 yards respectively. Toledo is coming off its bye week following a loss at Iowa St. which snapped its three-game winning streak. The Rockets are now laying their biggest number of the season which I feel is unjustified against one of the better teams in the MAC that are getting a different perception by the public. They have been outgained on four of their six games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous. That is not a good sign for a Massachusetts team that is starting to hit its stride offensively, averaging 39.8 ppg over its last four games. We don't need the outright victory here as getting this many points against a horrific defense is a sure take. That defensive ineptness is backed up by a situation where we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Play (149) Massachusetts Minutemen

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Ole Miss vs. LSU
Total
45 un-105
  at  BOVADA
in 12h

Free Pick on LSU/Ole Miss UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown Saturday night in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have had their defensive struggles this season, but are coming off a dominating performance against Kentucky last week. LSU held the Wildcats to just 3 points and 217 yards of total offense. A lot of people are writing off the Tigers after a couple of poor showing against Mississippi State and Auburn, but those are two of the most explosive offenses in the country. Ole Miss may be better than both of those teams, but it's not because of their offense. It's be big reason why the Rebels are only listed as a 3.5-point favorite.

I know the Tigers lost at home to the Bulldogs earlier this season, but don't let that fool you into thinking LSU isn't the same dominant team at home from year's past. That's just one game. Tiger Stadium is still one of the most difficult places in the country for opposing teams to come away with a win and I expect maximum effort here from LSU.

We have see the Ole Miss offense struggle against strong defensive teams on numerous occasions before breaking through with a couple of late scores. The Rebels had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter against Boise State and Memphis and just 10 versus Alabama. All 3 of those games finished UNDER the total.

I've went into detail on why I'm not expecting Ole Miss to put up a lot of points, only because there's really not a lot of explanation needed to why LSU will struggle to score. Ole Miss has one of the elite defenses in the country and couldn't matchup up better against a Tiger offense that is one dimensional with the run. The Rebels are 5th in the country against the run, giving up just 97.1 ypg. They are also allowing just 2.9 yards/carry against teams average 4.4.

UNDER is 13-3 in Ole Miss' last 16 road games after forcing 3 or more turnovers in their last game and 15-5 in LSU's last 20 home games after they gained 125 or less passing yards last time out.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 42-16 with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a home team that allowed 3 points or less in the 1st half of their last game in a contest between two teams who outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. That's a 72% system. Take the UNDER!

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Texas vs. Kansas State
Texas
+10-105
  at  BMAKER
in 4h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #193 Take Texas Longhorns over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) The Longhorns are getting better under new coach Charlie Strong and have only been dominated one time this year. Kansas State is coming off a big victory against Oklahoma last Saturday, a game the Sooners gave away with three miscues in the kicking game. Therefore I do not believe Kansas State is good enough to be laying double digits in this game. Texas seems to play to the level of their competition and you can bet they will be pumped up for this game. Texas has covered 9 of their last 12 games when they are and underdog on the road. The Wildcats win this game but it comes much closer than what the experts believe. Doc’s Sports nailed their NFL Game of the Year last week when the underdog Chiefs beat the Chargers straight-up. Expect more of the same this weekend with a full slate of winners on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday you cannot afford to miss. 

NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
North Carolina vs. Virginia
North Carolina
+7-110
  at  BMAKER
in 5h

North Carolina +7 1.1* Free Play (12:30pm ET)

Virginia wins with their defense and they haven’t faced an offense as good as North Carolina.  Both BYU and UCLA had similar QB and attacks and Virginia lost both of those games.  I don’t think Virginia’s offense is good enough to cover a TD spread even though the Tar Heels have shown nothing on defense.  Marqise Williams should be able to move the ball effectively enough to score some points.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London has been in this spot before and I wouldn’t be surprised if North Carolina came in and won and Virginia’s season got away from them.  The last two years Virginia’s talented defense has had no answer for North Carolina’s spread offense.

NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Texas vs. Kansas State
Texas
+10-105
  at  BOVADA
in 4h

 

 

Saturday Free Play

 

Big 12 from Tony George

 

Texas  @ K State -10

Bill Snyder continues to baffle sports bettors in the role of an underdog (I took them against OU last Week), as his team off an upset win at Oklahoma and now travel home to face the Longhorns Saturday Night.  Kansas State is the surprise team of the Big 12 to outsiders this season, however as usual, I am not surprised, they have had as many Big 12 wins as any team in the Big 12 in the last 4 years and Snyder is one of the best coaches in football.  Have no illusions, K State is the better team here, and the Little Apple is always a tough venue for any team to play and win, just ask Auburn who barely escaped out of here on a Thursday Night in Week 3 of the season.  That said Kansas State faces an upstart Texas team this Saturday off a big win.

One thing I have noticed about Texas is that Charlie Strong has done a good job of coaching this team, and with QB Ash going down early this season, Tyrone Swoops stepped in and while it was a rough start, he has evolved into a good QB and the Texas defense is stepping up as well.  QB Swoopes in the last 2 weeks has thrown for 655 yards, and you can pass on K State.  Texas has 5 star players all over the field, their OL is healthy, and while this line while justified based on last weeks big win, bear in mind OU struggled to beat Texas in the Red River War and I honestly feel with the balance on offense and a hot QB right now, Texas hangs tough in this one.  K State is very dependent on QB Waters running the ball with success, Texas will find a way to slow him down.  K State wins in a tough one here.

Texas +10 in my Free Pro Pick

 

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Wyoming vs. Colorado State
Colorado State
-18½-102
  at  PINNACLE
in 11h



10/25 07:00 PM EST   CF   (169) WYOMING VS (170) COLORADO STATE
Take: (170) COLORADO STATE
Reason: Your free pick for Saturday, October 25th comes in college football as Wyoming and Colorado State battle it out in the Mountain West. Wyoming (3-4) is winless on the road and the Cowboys are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, plus 17-36-1 ATS following a spread loss. The Wyoming Cowboys are ranked 115 on offense. The Colorado State Rams are 3-0 at home this season, 2-1 against conference opponents and 4-0 against non-conference opponents. The Rams are on an 18-7-1 ATS run, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. At home the Rams are averaging 35.7 scoring, and holding teams to 17.0 points scored on defense. The home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Colorado State. Play Colorado State!

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