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MLB  |  May 02, 2016
Rockies vs. Padres
Padres
+108
  at  BMAKER
in 4h

Jack's Free Pick Monday: San Diego Padres +108

I like the value we are getting with the San Diego Padres as home underdogs to the Colorado Rockies today.  I would argue that they actually have the advantage on the mound in this one and shouldn't be dogs because of it.

James Shields may sport an 0-4 record this year, but it's not for poor performance.  The right-hander has posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in five starts this season, including a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings.

Jon Gray is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here considering how awful he has been.  Gray is 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 11 earned runs and 19 base runners in only 8 2/3 innings pitched.

Shields is 11-1 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last three seasons.  The Rockies are 2-9 in Gray's last 11 starts overall, including 0-4 in his last four road starts.  The Rockies are 5-17 in their last 22 trips to San Diego.  The Padres are 4-1 in Shields' last five starts vs. Colorado.  Bet the Padres Monday.

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MLB  |  May 02, 2016
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Rangers
+130
  at  5DIMES
in 1h

Free Pick on Rangers + 

This will be the first meeting between these two teams since last year's AL division series, which included that memorable bat flip by Blue Jays' slugger Jose Bautista. The Rangers were not happy with the celebration and I look for them to come out treating this game like it was a playoff matchup to send a message to Toronto. 

We are also getting exceptional value here with Texas, as they look to have a major advantage on the mound. A.J. Griffin will start for the Rangers and he's one of the more underrated starters right now. Griffin is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 4 starts. The Blue Jays will counter with the struggling R.A. Dickey, who is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 5 starts. Dickey has had a horrible time in his 2 home starts, allowing 13 runs on 16 hits in just 11 innings of work. 

Griffin's teams are 23-7 in his last 30 starts at night and 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a underdog of +100 to +150. Rangers are also 12-5 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series and 12-5 in their last 17 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Toronto is 2-6 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts at home. Take Texas! 

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*PAYBACK TIME* BURNS' PERSONAL FAVORITE!

When you're used to winning, losing never sits well. After nearly two decades in the business, Ben Burns knows its all part of the game. That doesn't mean he doesn't get mad though. Burns HITS BACK HARD on Monday with a favorite which he fully expects to finish on top. Lay the wood and proceed directly to the Winner's Circle.


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